Northern Northern Virginia Commercial Real Estate Q3 2025 Market Report | Serafin Real Estate

Introduction

Northern Virginia’s commercial real estate market remains one of the most resilient and investable regions in the Mid-Atlantic. In this Q3 2025 market report, Serafin Real Estate, led by Joe Serafin, breaks down the performance of office, retail, and industrial properties across Loudoun, Fairfax, Prince William, Arlington, and Alexandria.

Despite higher borrowing costs and selective investor sentiment, fundamentals remain strong. Smart investors are focusing on well-located assets that balance risk, cash flow, and long-term appreciation.

Office Sector: Recalibrating for a New Era

The Northern Virginia office market continues to adapt post-pandemic.

• Loudoun County: Average price per SF dropped slightly to $190, with cap rates rising to 6.37%, signaling mild softening.
• Fairfax County: Modest growth to $234/SF, while cap rates remained stable at 7.62%.
• Prince William County: Office values rose to $191/SF as cap rates edged down to 7.75%—a sign of steady confidence.
• Arlington & Alexandria: Prices dipped 1.3% to $302/SF, and cap rates rose to 7.55%, indicating pressure in urban submarkets.

While overall sales volume remains lower, stabilized Class A assets in core corridors continue to attract capitalized investors looking beyond short-term volatility.

 

Retail Sector: The Region’s Standout Performer

Retail real estate in Northern Virginia continues to outperform expectations.

• Loudoun County: Prices jumped 8.2% to $343/SF, with cap rates compressing to 5.64%—the strongest performance region-wide.
• Fairfax County: Up 2.5% to $405/SF, driven by limited new construction and affluent demographics.
• Prince William County: Prices rose 4.8% to $325/SF, though cap rates widened to 6.76%, showing investors seeking higher yields.
• Arlington & Alexandria: Prices climbed 1% to $422/SF with continued yield tightening.

Neighborhood centers, essential retail, and high-traffic corridors remain investor favorites, reinforcing retail’s reputation as a stable, income-producing asset class.

Industrial Sector: The Powerhouse of Growth

Industrial and flex properties continue to anchor the Northern Virginia CRE market.

• Loudoun County: Prices increased to $330/SF, cap rates declined to 5.93%, underscoring investor demand for logistics and flex assets.
• Fairfax County: Up 4.2% to $248/SF with strong sales momentum approaching record levels.
• Prince William County: A standout performer—up 6.4% to $351/SF and cap rate compression from 7.66% to 6.00%.
• Arlington & Alexandria: Improved 4.3% to $264/SF as urban infill industrial rebounds.

With limited supply and persistent demand, industrial real estate remains the most resilient segment across Northern Virginia.

 

Why Serafin Real Estate Leads Northern Virginia CRE

Founded by Joe Serafin, Serafin Real Estate is a boutique commercial brokerage specializing in:

• • Early Education Centers
    

• • Special Purpose Properties

• • Freestanding Industrial, Retail, and Office
    

• • NNN Investments and Owner-User Properties
    

With more than $700 million in closed transactions, Serafin Real Estate is a multi-year Best of Loudoun winner and consistently sets record prices through precision marketing and data-driven strategy.

Key Takeaways

• • Office: Stabilizing with selective investor confidence.

• • Retail: Northern Virginia’s strongest and most active asset class.

• • Industrial: Continues to lead in growth and pricing power.

• • Investor Sentiment: Cautiously optimistic, focused on well-located, cash-flowing assets.

About Serafin Real Estate

Serafin Real Estate is the top commercial brokerage in Loudoun County, serving Loudoun, Fairfax, Prince William, Arlington, Alexandria, Clarke, and Winchester Counties. The firm’s hyperlocal expertise, advanced technology, and proprietary buyer network make it a trusted partner for property owners looking to maximize value and achieve top-dollar results.

Visit www.serafinre.com/insights for more Northern Virginia commercial real estate updates.