The SRE Early Education & Childcare Report, 2026 Special Edition: What Is Your Center Worth Today?
by Joe Serafin, October 2026
Key Takeaways: Northern Virginia Childcare Real Estate in 2026
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- 709 licensed childcare centers operate in Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William Counties, and only about 2% change hands in a typical year.
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- Buyers are back. About $70M of childcare centers traded in 2025 and the first nine months of 2026, after just $3.8M in 2024.
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- Prices held. Sales since 2024 averaged $475 per square foot, up from $359 in 2016 to 2018.
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- Cap rates are back near 7% after averaging 6.36% in 2022 and 2023.
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- New leases start higher. Reported rents on leases signed since 2023 averaged $36.00 per square foot, about $9.50 above 2016 to 2022
Northern Virginia childcare real estate is one of the hardest property types to buy and one of the most valuable to own well. To give operators, landlords and investors a clear picture, we analyzed every childcare sale and lease CoStar recorded in Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William Counties since 2016. We then added our own records from hundreds of conversations and dozens of closings.
This post summarizes our new Early Education & Childcare Report. It covers how often centers sell, what they sell for, cap rates, lease rates, who is buying, and what each county looks like today. You can read the full report below.
The Northern Virginia Childcare Real Estate Market at a Glance
| Metric | Loudoun | Fairfax* | Prince William** |
|---|---|---|---|
| Licensed childcare centers | 121 | 417 | 171 |
| Freestanding buildings (CoStar) | 66 | 74 | 56 |
| Vacancy | 3.8% | 0.0% | 2.3% |
| Market asking rent ($/SF/yr) | $37.90 | $36.69 | $28.74 |
| Market value ($/SF) | $456 | $494 | $497 |
| Average sale price since 2019 ($/SF) | $443 | $448 | $482 |
| 24-month lease renewal rate | 78% | 90% | 90% |
*Includes Fairfax City. **Includes the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park. Sources: licensed center counts from SRE research of state licensing records, October 2026; vacancy, rent, value and renewal are CoStar modeled county metrics; average sale price from CoStar sale comps, childcare only.
How Often Do Childcare Centers Sell in Northern Virginia?
Rarely. CoStar records sales for about 1.2% of licensed centers each year. However, many operating centers sell confidentially, with the business and building changing hands off-market. Including those sales, we estimate the true turnover rate at 1.8% to 2.2% a year. In other words, roughly 1 in 50 centers trades in a given year.
The physical supply is even tighter. Most licensed centers operate inside churches, schools, strip retail or office space. Only about 28% sit in a freestanding building that can be bought or sold as a childcare property. As a result, a licensed, freestanding center is the scarcest kind of Northern Virginia childcare real estate, and buyers price it that way.
Childcare Center Sales Volume and Prices
The market stalled in 2024 and came back in 2025. From 2017 through 2023, about $39M of childcare centers traded each year across the three counties. In 2024, just $3.8M changed hands. Then volume returned: $37.6M in 2025 and $32.4M through September 2026.
| Period | Average Sale Price per SF | Average Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 to 2018 | $359 | 7.08% |
| 2019 to 2021 | $472 | 6.90% |
| 2022 to 2023 | $416 | 6.36% |
| 2024 to 2026 YTD | $475 | 6.96% |
Source: CoStar sale comps, childcare and early education centers in Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William Counties. Averages are simple averages of each sale; one 10.02% cap rate outlier is excluded.
Notable trades since 2025 include a $12.9M two-school Primrose portfolio in Aldie and South Riding, and an $8.75M sale of The Learning Experience in Fairfax at $875 per square foot. Because many operating-center sales close privately, these figures understate the real size of the market.
Childcare Center Cap Rates in Northern Virginia
Northern Virginia childcare real estate investments are trading at cap rates near 7% today. That is up from an average of 6.36% in 2022 and 2023, the tightest pricing in our data. Even so, 7% still prices a well-leased center at roughly 14 times its net rent.
| Recent NNN Sale | Closed | Price | Cap Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goddard School of Lake Ridge, Woodbridge (SRE) | Apr 2026 | $3.66M | 7.14% |
| The Learning Experience, Gainesville | Jan 2026 | $7.03M | 7.00% |
| Childcare center, 10219 Dumfries Rd, Manassas | Apr 2025 | $6.75M | 6.94% |
| The Learning Experience, Fairfax | Jan 2025 | $8.75M | 6.75% |
| Goddard School, Herndon (SRE) | Dec 2024 | $4.34M | 7.02% |
Source: CoStar sale comps; Goddard Herndon cap rate from the SRE closing (NOI divided by price).
Four factors move a childcare cap rate more than anything else:
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- Tenant brand and guaranty. A national franchise or corporate guaranty prices tighter than a single-site independent.
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- Remaining lease term. A fresh 15-year lease prices meaningfully better than a lease with five years left.
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- Rent versus market. Below-market rent with annual increases reads as upside; above-market rent reads as risk.
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- Building and license. Licensed capacity, outdoor play space and parking protect the operator, so they protect value.
Investment sales also pay more per square foot. Since 2019, CoStar investment sales averaged $471/SF, compared with $426/SF for owner-user sales.
Childcare Center Lease Rates and Leasing Trends
In Northern Virginia childcare real estate, landlords hold the leverage. Reported rents on childcare leases signed since 2023 averaged $36.00 per square foot, compared with $26.49 from 2016 to 2022. In addition, operators renew at high rates once they are licensed in a building.
| Leasing Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Average reported rent, 2023 to 2026 | $36.00/SF/yr |
| Average reported rent, 2016 to 2022 | $26.49/SF/yr |
| Average lease term | 100 months (about 8.4 years) |
| Average time to lease a vacant center | 12.6 months |
| 24-month renewal rate, by county | 78% to 90% |
Sources: CoStar lease comps and Lease Activity analytics, childcare leases since January 1, 2016; CoStar county analytics. Only about one in three childcare leases reports a rent.
The catch is downtime. A vacant center takes about a year to lease, so a planned exit beats an empty building. For example, at 12960 Troupe Street in Woodbridge, we drew six qualified offers and signed a 15-year NNN lease in 67 days with zero days of vacancy. Similarly, at 248 Loudoun Street in Leesburg, we leased a 48-child center at $40.00/SF NNN in 51 days.
Who Is Buying Childcare Real Estate?
Private capital owns Northern Virginia childcare real estate. Since 2019, 78% of recorded buyers were private individuals and families, including 1031 exchange investors and private operators. Investment sales made up 63% of transactions, and owner-user sales made up the rest.
Operators remain active buyers when the right building comes up. Meanwhile, 2025 brought the first private-equity portfolio trade in our data, when Genrock Capital bought two Primrose schools in Ashburn. Brands signing leases and buying in the region include Primrose, The Learning Experience, Goddard, Guidepost Montessori, Karter Schools, Celebree, Kiddie Academy, Ivybrook Academy and Everbrook Academy.
Loudoun County Childcare Real Estate Market
Loudoun is the most active childcare market in the region. It has 121 licensed centers, and about 3.2% of them record a sale in a typical year, nearly triple the regional rate. CoStar tracks 66 freestanding childcare buildings totaling 647,000 SF. Vacancy rose to 3.8% from 1.9% a year ago, and 21,800 SF is under construction, the only childcare space being built in the three counties.
What it means for Loudoun owners: Market rent is $37.90/SF and sales since 2019 averaged $443/SF. With new supply coming and vacancy ticking up, landlords should lock in renewals early and owners thinking about selling should not wait for a vacancy.
Fairfax County Childcare Real Estate Market
Fairfax has the deepest operator base and the tightest real estate. It has 417 licensed centers, yet only 18% sit in a freestanding building. Vacancy is zero, the lease renewal rate is 90.4%, and just 0.6% of centers record a sale in a typical year.
What it means for Fairfax owners: Scarcity is your leverage. Market value is $494/SF and market rent is $36.69/SF. A freestanding, licensed center in Fairfax will draw operators and investors quickly when it is marketed to the right buyers.
Prince William County Childcare Real Estate Market
Prince William, including Manassas and Manassas Park, has 171 licensed centers and 56 freestanding buildings. Vacancy is 2.3% and the renewal rate is 89.9%. Notably, rents run about $8 to $9 below Loudoun and Fairfax at $28.74/SF, yet sales since 2019 averaged $482/SF, the highest of the three counties.
What it means for Prince William owners: Buyers are paying full value for buildings here. If your lease is below market, a new or extended lease before a sale can add meaningful value.
Six Lessons for Owners of Northern Virginia Childcare Real Estate
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- Fix the income, then sell. Investment sales average more per square foot than owner-user sales. At 248 Loudoun Street, a new lease lifted the owner’s NOI about 45%.
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- Split the business from the building. At 46386 Logan Way in Sterling, selling the school to an operator and the leased building to an investor earned about $300,000 more than a combined sale.
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- Keep it confidential. Families and teachers leave when rumors start. At Curious Minds Montessori in South Riding, we sold the school and building without a public listing.
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- Let the market set the price. Launching “subject to offer” drew six qualified offers at Troupe Street, and 6000 Union Mill Road in Clifton went under agreement at full asking in about 30 days.
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- Know your license. Capacity, classrooms and outdoor space set value. At 20685 Fernbank Court, licensing limits pointed us to schools and religious buyers, and the building sold for $4.7M all cash.
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- Plan the exit before the lease ends. At 20577 Ashburn Road, a national operator exited mid-lease and we re-leased the campus at $35.00/SF NNN for 10 years.
Read the Full Early Education & Childcare Report
Recent SRE Childcare and School Closings
The closings below are a selection of our work. Many of our childcare sales and leases close quietly, with no public listing, to protect enrollment, staff and price.
Since our founding in 2019, SRE has represented the seller in 43% of childcare and school sales in Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William Counties where CoStar reports a listing broker, six times as many as the next-closest firm. We also represented the landlord on 21% of all childcare leases in the three counties over the same period.*
“This brokerage is refreshingly unique, in that they approach transactions as invested partners, rather than a disinterested intermediary only concerned with maximizing their fee. … When we look to buy or sell, our group is committed to our continued partnership with Serafin RE.”
Mustaq H., Praxis Capital, repeat childcare investor
Frequently Asked Questions
How many licensed childcare centers are in Northern Virginia?
As of October 2026, Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William Counties have 709 licensed commercial childcare centers: 121 in Loudoun, 417 in Fairfax (including Fairfax City) and 171 in Prince William (including Manassas and Manassas Park). Families can search licensed programs through Child Care VA.
What cap rate do childcare centers sell for in Northern Virginia?
Recent NNN childcare sales traded at cap rates between 6.75% and 7.14%, and the 2024 to 2026 average is 6.96%. Cap rates are tighter for national brands on long leases and wider for independents with shorter terms.
What do childcare centers lease for in Northern Virginia?
Reported rents on childcare leases signed since 2023 averaged $36.00 per square foot per year, usually triple net. CoStar’s market asking rent is $37.90 in Loudoun, $36.69 in Fairfax and $28.74 in Prince William.
What is a childcare center building worth per square foot?
Childcare center sales since 2024 averaged $475 per square foot. Leased investments typically sell for more than vacant or owner-occupied buildings, and price depends heavily on licensed capacity, location and lease terms.
Should I sell my childcare business and building together or separately?
It depends on your goals and tax position. Selling the business to an operator and then selling the building with a new long-term lease to an investor can produce a higher total price, as it did at 46386 Logan Way.
Can I sell my childcare center confidentially?
Yes. Many operating centers sell without a public listing to protect families, staff and enrollment. We market confidential offerings directly to qualified operators and investors under non-disclosure agreements.
About the Author
Joe Serafin is the Owner and Principal Broker of Serafin Real Estate in Leesburg, Virginia. Since 2005, he has closed more than $1.3 billion in commercial real estate transactions. Under his leadership, SRE has closed more than $745 million since its 2019 founding and earned five consecutive Best of Loudoun awards (2022 to 2026). Joe serves on the MAREMA board and specializes in Northern Virginia childcare real estate, schools, faith-based properties and NNN investments across Loudoun, Fairfax and Prince William Counties.
Thinking about selling or leasing your center? Call 703.261.4809 or email brokers@serafinre.com for a confidential opinion of value. You can also browse our current listings.
Methodology
Sales data comes from CoStar sale comps for Day Care Center and School properties in Loudoun County, Fairfax County including Fairfax City, and Prince William County including Manassas and Manassas Park, January 2016 through September 30, 2026. Market trend figures use childcare and early education sales only; universities, colleges, office parks, allocated portfolio pieces and unpriced records are excluded. Leasing data comes from CoStar lease comps and Lease Activity analytics. Licensed center counts are SRE research of state licensing records, October 2026. Vacancy, market rent, market value and market cap rate are CoStar modeled county metrics. The 1.8% to 2.2% turnover rate is an SRE estimate that adds off-market sales to CoStar-recorded sales.
*Market share is based on CoStar-reported sales of childcare, early education and school properties, January 1, 2019 to September 30, 2026, including K-12 schools. Many operating-business sales close confidentially and are not reported to CoStar. Leasing share excludes two non-childcare leases.