The SRE Commercial Real Estate Report, Q3 2026: Where Is the Money Flowing?
By Joe Serafin, Owner and Principal Broker, Serafin Real Estate · Published October 2026 · Data through September 30, 2026
Key Takeaways: Northern Virginia Commercial Real Estate Market, Q3 2026
- $12.32 billion in commercial property sold across Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William through September 30, 2026. That is already 116% of all of 2025.
- Q3 volume was $2.94 billion across 254 sales, up 9% from Q3 2025 but 55% below a record second quarter.
- Capital rotated. Data center buying paused, while office volume quadrupled to $995 million and multifamily rose 49% to $888 million.
- Fairfax County had its strongest quarter in seven at $2.20 billion. Loudoun recorded no data center sales in Q3.
- Industrial and flex tenants are paying at or above asking rent. Office tenants are signing about 21% below the ask.
The Northern Virginia commercial real estate market has already traded more property in nine months than it did in all of last year. According to CoStar sales data analyzed by Serafin Real Estate, 814 commercial sales totaling $12.32 billion closed in Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William Counties through September 30. That is more than double the same period of 2025.
However, the third quarter told a different story than the first half. In this report, I break down where capital is moving, what it means in each county, and what private and high-net-worth property owners should do next.
Northern Virginia Commercial Real Estate Market at a Glance
| County | Q3 2026 Volume | Q3 Sales | 2026 YTD Volume | YTD vs. 2025 YTD | Median Cap Rate (YTD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loudoun County | $248.2M | 59 | $2.65B | +19% | 6.48% |
| Fairfax County & City | $2.20B | 136 | $4.45B | +86% | 5.86% |
| Prince William County* | $488.3M | 59 | $5.21B | +320% | 6.50% |
| Three-County Total | $2.94B | 254 | $12.32B | +110% |
*Includes the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park. Source: CoStar Sales Comparables, sold transactions, January 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026. Cap rates are medians of disclosed actual cap rates.
Where Is the Money Flowing? The Q3 Rotation Explained
For most of 2026, data centers drove the headlines. Data center and hyperscale-linked buyers account for $5.57 billion, or about 45%, of year-to-date volume. The largest trade was Digital Realty’s $3.58 billion purchase of four data center buildings from Blackstone, which closed June 30.
In Q3, that buying paused. As a result, three-county industrial volume fell 98%, from $4.91 billion in Q2 to $96 million in Q3. Meanwhile, the money did not leave Northern Virginia. Instead, it moved into other property types:
- Office: up from $235 million in Q2 to $995 million in Q3.
- Multifamily: up 49% to $888 million.
- Flex: up from $32 million to $174 million.
In other words, the headline numbers in the Northern Virginia commercial real estate market belong to a few giant trades. The everyday market of owner-users, private investors, and specialty buyers kept moving. Three-county deal count is up 13% year over year, which tells you demand is broad, not just concentrated at the top.
Loudoun County Commercial Real Estate Market
Loudoun County recorded 59 sales totaling $248.2 million in Q3. That was its lowest dollar volume in seven quarters. Even so, the deal count held right at its usual pace of about 60 sales per quarter.
The difference is data centers. After $1.93 billion of data center and hyperscale-linked trades in the first half, including Digital Realty’s $1.12 billion Sterling acquisition, Loudoun recorded none in Q3. Through September, Loudoun has logged 174 sales and $2.65 billion, up 19% from the same nine months of 2025.
Land led the quarter at 32% of volume, including DRB Group’s $44.0 million two-parcel purchase on Claude Moore Drive in Ashburn. Pricing also held up well. For example, the median price per square foot is $356 year to date, up from $281 a year ago. In addition, private buyers made up 66% of disclosed buyers, and owner-users accounted for 24%.
What it means for Loudoun owners: Buyer demand for well-located, smaller assets remains steady. At the Loudoun Chamber’s State of the Market event in October, Loudoun Economic Development reported countywide flex vacancy of just 2.6%, as Loudoun Now reported. Serafin Real Estate Regional President Grant Wetmore spoke on the panel. He noted that trade and light-manufacturing users in the 5,000 to 25,000 square foot range are getting priced out. For owners of small-bay industrial and flex buildings, that is leverage.
Fairfax County Commercial Real Estate Market
Fairfax County and the City of Fairfax posted 136 sales totaling $2.20 billion in Q3. That was the county’s strongest quarter in our seven-quarter data set and more than double Q2. Through September, volume reached $4.45 billion, already 107% of all of 2025 and up 86% from last year.
Two sectors carried the quarter. First, office traded $952 million. The Department of Defense paid $285.0 million for 7700 Arlington Boulevard, and Inova acquired the Willow Oaks medical campus for $97.5 million. Second, multifamily added $681 million, led by the $250 million sale of ReNew Old Town, a 1,222-unit community in Alexandria.
At the same time, office pricing reset lower. The median office sale was $188 per square foot in Q3, compared with $231 year to date. In addition, the county’s median cap rate is 5.86% year to date, down from 7.17% in the same period of 2025.
What it means for Fairfax owners: Users and repositioning buyers are active in office at a lower basis. Owners of stabilized, well-leased income property are seeing stronger pricing as cap rates compress.
Prince William County Commercial Real Estate Market
Prince William County, including Manassas and Manassas Park, recorded 59 sales and $488.3 million in Q3, down 4% from Q3 2025. Year to date, the county has traded $5.21 billion across 250 sales. That is 4.2 times the same nine months of 2025 and 1.9 times all of last year.
Overall, data center buyers account for about 70% of that volume, led by Digital Realty’s $2.46 billion Manassas portfolio and Blue Owl’s $860.6 million purchase in Gainesville. In Q3, however, activity shifted toward housing and powered land. Multifamily was 42% of Q3 volume, led by Foulger-Pratt’s $100 million purchase at 14110 Big Crest Lane in Woodbridge. Yondr also paid $110.0 million, about $2.75 million per acre, for 40 acres on Hornbaker Road in Manassas.
What it means for Prince William owners: Land with a credible path to power is trading at data center prices. If you own a large industrial or agricultural parcel near transmission, know what you hold before you field an offer.
Northern Virginia Commercial Leasing: Who Has the Leverage?
Sales data only tells half the story of the Northern Virginia commercial real estate market. So, this quarter we added a leasing view. Using CoStar lease activity for leases signed since January 1, 2025 across all three counties, here is how average starting rents compare with average asking rents.
| Property Type | Avg. Asking Rent | Avg. Starting Rent | Starting vs. Asking | Months Vacant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial (NNN) | $16.78 | $16.93 | +1% | 8.5 |
| Flex (NNN) | $18.34 | $18.96 | +3% | 12.8 |
| Retail (NNN) | $32.40 | $29.61 | -9% | 19.6 |
| Medical (Full Service) | $30.31 | $28.99 | -4% | 26.0 |
| Office (Full Service) | $32.59 | $25.76 | -21% | 22.3 |
Source: CoStar Lease Activity, Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William Counties, leases signed January 2025 to October 2026. Asking and starting rents are averages across different sets of leases, so the gap is directional.
The takeaway is clear. First, industrial and flex landlords can hold firm on rent, because space leases quickly and tenants are paying at or above the ask. Office landlords, on the other hand, should budget for concessions and a longer lease-up. Finally, retail leases run the longest, about 7.5 years on average, which makes well-leased retail attractive to investors seeking durable income.
Cap Rates and Pricing Across Northern Virginia
Cap rates vary widely by county and property type, and disclosed samples are small. Here is what the data shows year to date:
- Fairfax: 5.86% median cap rate (25 disclosed), down from 7.17% a year ago. Fairfax multifamily traded between 5.20% and 5.65%.
- Loudoun: 6.48% median (13 disclosed). Its retail cap average is lifted by a few small-bay assets that traded between 10.5% and 13.5%.
- Prince William: 6.50% median (23 disclosed).
Similarly, median price per square foot rose in Loudoun ($356 vs. $281) and Fairfax ($270 vs. $260), but slipped in Prince William ($271 vs. $288). Specialty income property also performed well. In fact, the two disclosed cap rates on childcare and school sales this year were 7.00% and 7.14%.
What This Means for Northern Virginia Property Owners
If you own property in the Northern Virginia commercial real estate market, 2026 is a year to plan with intention. Based on the data and what our team sees in the field every week, here is where I would focus:
- Know your value before the market tells you. Pricing is strong for the right assets, but it varies by property type, tenancy, and location more than ever.
- Fix the income before you sell. A below-market lease can cap your sale price. Re-leasing first can add significant value.
- Small-bay industrial, flex, and owner-user buildings have leverage. Demand far exceeds available space in this size range.
- NNN and specialty income is in demand. Private investors are paying for durable tenancy in childcare, medical, schools, and faith-based assets.
- Plan 2027 moves now. Whether you are considering a sale, a 1031 exchange, a refinance, or a lease renewal, the best outcomes come from preparing early.
Read the Full Q3 2026 SRE Magazine
For a deeper look at the Northern Virginia commercial real estate market, the complete Q3 2026 edition of The SRE Commercial Real Estate Report includes county-by-county sales data by property type, our new Leasing Pulse, featured closings, featured listings, and the third installment of our Great Re-Alignment market outlook. Flip through it below.
Recent Serafin Real Estate Results
- Church land in Lansdowne sold above list. A restricted-use, 4.41-acre religious facility site went under contract in under 60 days and closed in August 2026 at $3.718 million, 6.2% above its $3.5 million list price.
- Leesburg childcare center leased in 51 days. A 10-year NNN lease at $40.00 per square foot raised net operating income by about 45% and estimated asset value by about 55%, with no renovations by the owner.
You can also browse our active commercial listings or read our Mid-Year 2026 market report for the first-half story.
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the Northern Virginia commercial real estate market performing in 2026?
Very strongly by volume. Through September 30, 2026, Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William Counties recorded 814 commercial sales totaling $12.32 billion. That is 116% of all 2025 volume and up 110% from the same nine months last year.
Is now a good time to sell commercial property in Loudoun County?
For many owners, yes. Loudoun’s median sale price per square foot is $356 year to date, up from $281 a year ago, and deal count has held steady at about 60 sales per quarter. Demand is especially strong for small-bay industrial, flex, land, and owner-user buildings. The right timing still depends on your tenancy, lease terms, and goals.
What are commercial cap rates in Northern Virginia right now?
Year-to-date median cap rates are 5.86% in Fairfax County, 6.48% in Loudoun County, and 6.50% in Prince William County, based on disclosed CoStar sales. However, rates vary significantly by property type, tenant credit, and lease term.
How are data centers affecting commercial real estate in Loudoun and Prince William?
Data center and hyperscale-linked buyers account for about 45% of 2026 three-county volume, including Digital Realty’s $3.58 billion portfolio purchase. They also drive land values. For example, in Q3, Yondr paid about $2.75 million per acre for 40 acres in Manassas. At the same time, data center demand is pushing small industrial users out of the market, which supports flex and small-bay values.
What is happening in the Fairfax County office market?
Office sales picked up sharply in Q3, reaching $952 million, but at a lower basis. The median office sale was $188 per square foot in Q3, compared with $231 year to date. Most buyers are users and repositioning investors. On the leasing side, office tenants are signing about 21% below average asking rents.
How do I find out what my commercial property is worth?
Request a complimentary Opinion of Value from Serafin Real Estate. We analyze recent sales, current leasing, and your tenancy. Then we match that to buyer demand for your property type in Loudoun, Fairfax, or Prince William County. Call 703.261.4809 or email brokers@serafinre.com.
About the Author: Joe Serafin
Joe Serafin is the Owner and Principal Broker of Serafin Real Estate, a commercial real estate brokerage headquartered in Leesburg, Virginia. He has been in real estate since 2005 and has personally closed more than $1.3 billion in transactions. In 2019, he founded Serafin Real Estate, and since then the firm has closed more than $745 million. Joe also serves on the board of the Mid-Atlantic Real Estate Marketing Association (MAREMA) and presented on AI in commercial real estate at its 50th Annual Meeting in October 2026.
Today, Serafin Real Estate represents commercial property owners and investors in the Northern Virginia commercial real estate market across Loudoun, Fairfax, and Prince William Counties, with deep expertise in owner-user buildings, NNN investments, early education centers, faith-based properties, and special-use real estate. Loudoun Times-Mirror readers have voted the firm Best of Loudoun for commercial real estate five consecutive years (2022 to 2026).
Thinking about your next move? Contact Serafin Real Estate for a complimentary Opinion of Value. Call 703.261.4809 or email brokers@serafinre.com.
Methodology: Sales data from CoStar Sales Comparables for Loudoun County, Fairfax County (including the City of Fairfax), and Prince William County (including the Cities of Manassas and Manassas Park), sold transactions only, pulled October 2026. Each CoStar line item counts as one transaction. Data center and hyperscale-linked volume reflects CoStar’s data center classification and known data center buyers. Recent quarters may rise as late sales are recorded. Leasing data from CoStar Lease Activity for leases signed since January 1, 2025.